Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
